Dalal Street finally got a breather on Thursday, September 4, after four straight sessions of punishment, but the close was nowhere near the day’s high. What looked like a strong comeback in the morning turned into a cautious close after the closing auction shaved off gains.
Your charts tell the story perfectly:
BSE Sensex closed at 76,515.43, up 362.57 points or 0.48% as of 3:32 pm IST. It opened at 76,657.02, sprinted to an intraday high of 76,883.14 around noon, and then drifted lower to hit its low at exactly the close – 76,515.43. Previous close was 76,152.86. Still far from its 52-week high of 86,159.02 and well above its 52-week low of 71,545.81.
Nifty 50 ended at 23,897.70, up 24.25 points or 0.10% at 3:31 pm IST. It opened at 23,910.90, topped out at 24,005.75, reclaiming the psychological 24k mark in early trade, before sliding to a low of 23,895.85. Previous close was 23,873.45. Its 52-week range: 26,373.20 – 22,182.55.
Ahead of the closing auction, Sensex was up 0.65% and Nifty up 0.27%, but the new Closing Auction Session proved to be a drag once again.
The Big Picture: Fourth Straight Weekly Loss
Friday’s pop hides a painful week. Nifty lost 1.2% and Sensex 1% for the week, logging their fourth consecutive weekly decline – the longest losing streak in five months.
The culprit is not domestic. India’s Q1 GDP printed at a robust 7.8% and GST collections were strong, but it was not enough. Brent crude jumped almost 7% this week to around $96 per barrel, after fresh U.S.-Iran military strikes in the Middle East raised supply fears. That single factor pushed global bond yields up and risk assets down.
Market breadth on Friday was positive – NSE saw 2,017 advances against 1,520 declines. Nifty Smallcap 100 closed in the green, Midcap 100 slipped into red. Sectorally, Nifty Metal jumped over 1% to lead, Nifty Pharma fell 0.7%. Auto was the week’s villain, down 4% on high-base and weak monsoon-led rural demand worries. Maruti fell 5.1%, M&M 4.9%. Coal India bucked the trend, up 3.6% on strong August e-auction premiums.
BUSINESS BEAT: Three Triggers That Moved The Market
1. RBI Goes Full Muscle Mode, Rupee Gets A Shot In The Arm
The rupee posted its best week in five despite oil. It ended flat at 94.4850 on Friday after moving in a tight 6 paise range, but gained 0.9% for the week. Why? RBI intervention. The central bank sold dollars aggressively through the week.
The firepower came from its FCNR swap scheme. Banks mobilized over $60 billion in just the last 10 days from NRIs, taking total inflows from June-August to a record $136 billion. That gave RBI the muscle to defend the rupee. Dealers now see 94.00-94.20 as a strong support zone for USD/INR.
2. SEBI Steps In As Closing Bell Turns Chaotic
On Thursday, Sensex plunged 2.5% during the closing auction on weekly expiry, leaving traders stunned. The closing auction is now reshaping options trading, forcing traders to hedge more in the last 15 minutes.
On Friday, SEBI said it will review the methodology for determining derivatives settlement pricing linked to this auction. That triggered a sharp rally in capital market stocks – BSE, Angel One, CDSL all surged.
3. IPO Street On Fire, FII-DII Tug Of War
Primary market diverted secondary market flows. ESDS Software made a blockbuster debut, listing at Rs 757 on NSE, a 76.46% premium over its issue price of Rs 429. Priority Jewels listed at Rs 230, up 15%.
Next up is Manipal Payment and Identity Solutions – Rs 805 crore IPO with price band Rs 322-339 opening Sept 9, and a busy pipeline ahead. As Esquire Capital’s Samrat Dasgupta said, “Even strong growth and GST data struggled to lift sentiment as crude remains the central overhang.”
FIIs sold Rs 2,345 crore on Thursday, but DIIs bought Rs 4,977 crore, holding the fort.
GEOPOLITICS: Oil, Brussels & Moscow Connect
Oil Shock: The Hormuz Headache
The market’s biggest overhang remains geopolitics in the Gulf. U.S.-Iran hostilities intensified, with fresh strikes reported, stoking inflation concerns. For India, which imports 85% of its crude, every $1 rise in Brent widens the current account deficit. Globally, Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.1%, while MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.8% tracking dovish Fed bets.
India-Belgium Handshake: No Arms For Pak
In a diplomatic win, Belgium assured India it will not pursue any defence cooperation or tech transfer with Pakistan. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh raised the issue directly with Belgium’s Defence Minister Theo Francken in New Delhi. Francken assured India stands firmly with New Delhi.
PM Modi and Belgian PM Bart De Wever also agreed to deepen ties in trade, defence, clean energy, critical minerals and semiconductors, and set up an Investment Fast-Track Mechanism for Belgian firms with a target to double bilateral trade in five years. This builds on the India-EU trade deal agreed in January.
The Russia Rupee-Rouble Rail Is Ready
Russia said payment bottlenecks with India are a thing of the past. 96% of bilateral trade now happens in roubles and rupees, with 90% transactions settled in under 10 minutes. Trade hit a record $70 billion in 2024. This is crucial ahead of the BRICS Summit in India on Sept 12-13, where Putin, Xi and 20+ leaders are expected, and after PM Modi’s SCO appearance.
ET’s Take: What Next?
Technically, Nifty formed a small candle near 23,900 after hitting 24,005, showing profit booking at higher levels. As WealthMills’ Kranthi Bathini notes, “These inflows bolster bank liquidity for festive credit growth, but benchmarks remain range-bound as crude remains the joker in the pack.”
For traders, 24,000-24,050 is now immediate resistance, 23,800 is support. Until Brent cools below $92, rallies are likely to be sold.
Bottom line: Friday’s green was relief, not reversal. Dalal Street needs oil to cool and global yields to soften before bulls can truly charge again.
