Dalal Street just cannot stop. For fourth straight session, benchmark indices closed at day’s high, logging over 2,800 points rally in three days, as crude oil’s 8% crash, heavy FII buying and record Q2 results from energy-to-bank majors supercharged risk appetite.
The BSE Sensex surged 1,225.07 points or 1.62% to settle at 76,917.85 at 3:32 PM IST. It opened at 76,288.65 versus previous close of 75,692.78, touched an intra-day low of 76,033.74, then climbed 884.11 points to a high of 76,917.85, closing at peak. In early trade it jumped 614.66-596 points to 76,301.63, and by 1:45 PM it was up 1,065 points or 1.41% to 76,757.78 with intra-day high of 76,779.66. Previous close was 75,692.78. 52-week high 86,159.02, low 71,292.88. This is highest close since September 7, more than seven weeks high.
The NSE Nifty 50 ended at 23,810.85, up 370.05 points or 1.58% at 3:31 PM IST. It opened at 23,582.25 versus previous close of 23,440.80, hit a low of 23,482.80, and surged to a high of 23,810.85, closing at high. In early trade it rallied 149.80 points to 23,588.55, and by 1:51 PM it advanced 294.50 points or 1.26% to 23,735.30 with high of 23,746.25. Previous close was 23,440.80. 52-week high 26,373.20, low 22,179.90. The 1-day chart showed clean uptrend from 9:30 AM to 3:30 PM, with higher highs and higher lows.
Market Momentum – Strongest In Five Weeks
Monday’s rally was already strong – Sensex jumped 1,233.25 points or 1.66% to 75,692.78, Nifty up 387.70 points or 1.68% to 23,440.80, strongest close in over five weeks, led by Reliance Industries 11.6% gain. Tuesday extended gains. Gift Nifty was trading around 23,553 level, up nearly 150 points or 0.65% before open, indicating positive start.
Foreign Flows Return
FIIs bought equities worth Rs 3,114.68-3,598.54 crore on Monday, per exchange data, after buying Rs 3,598.54 crore Friday. Some provisional data showed FPI buying Rs 31,150 crore Monday in heavy block deals. DIIs were net sellers Monday, but overall flows positive.
Sectoral Trends – Oil & Gas, Banks, FMCG Lead
All-round Buying
Nifty Oil and Gas was top performer Monday, up more than 4% to 2.33%, led by Reliance and GAIL, PSU Bank, Metal, Auto, Cement, Consumer Durables and Realty up over 1%. On Tuesday, FMCG, Banks, Financial Services, Realty led rally. Bank Nifty facing resistance at 55,000-55,200.
Top Gainers Monday-Tuesday
Reliance Industries emerged biggest contributor, up 4.59% to 11.6% to Rs 1,218.40, Tata Steel up 3.88% to 5% to Rs 174.10, Coal India, Max Healthcare, Jio Financial Services up 2.13% to Rs 208.85, Maruti Suzuki up 2.54% to Rs 11,687, Shriram Finance, Tata Motors PV, NTPC up 2.96% to Rs 325.60, UltraTech Cement among leaders.
Technical View
Nifty reclaimed 50-day EMA, RSI improved to 53.50-58 above average 45.97, PCR at 1.24 positive. Immediate resistance 23,500-23,800, support 23,500 then 23,400 and 23,100.
Business Beat – GAIL, Bank Of Baroda, NTPC Green Shine
Q2 earnings continued to drive stocks.
GAIL – Profit Doubles
State-owned natural gas major GAIL’s profit after tax jumped 110% to 139.3% to Rs 4,650-4,723.75 crore in July-September vs Rs 1,972.40-1,988.71 crore YoY, revenue from operations jumped to Rs 47,301.03 crore vs Rs 35,657.18 crore, up 17%. Adjusted EBITDA at Rs 64.1 billion, up 1% QoQ and 101% YoY, 22% above Nomura estimate. Gas transmission volumes 130.1 mmscmd up 6% sequentially, gas marketing volumes 97.2 mmscmd up 3%, segment EBIT Rs 32.8 billion, 23% above estimate, supported by spread between Henry Hub-linked LNG and spot LNG. Management doubled FY27 gas marketing EBIT guidance to Rs 90-95 billion from Rs 45 billion. Shares up nearly 3% to 4% to Rs 181.27, Nomura maintains Buy with target raised to Rs 210 from Rs 195, raises FY27 EBITDA estimate 29%.
Bank Of Baroda – Record Profit
Public sector lender reported 35.8% YoY increase in standalone net profit at record Rs 6,531.5-6,532 crore vs Rs 4,809 crore YoY, consolidated net profit Rs 6,737.28 crore up 31%, highest-ever quarterly profit. Net Interest Income up 9% to Rs 13,026 crore, non-interest income up nearly 96% to Rs 6,881 crore, treasury income Rs 4,093 crore vs Rs 1,086 crore YoY and Rs 893 crore QoQ, driven by sale of portion of NSE shares during NSE IPO. Gross NPA ratio improved 21 bps QoQ to 1.78% from 1.99%, net NPA down. Loan growth healthy 18% YoY led by RAM segment, deposits up 16% YoY and 7% QoQ led by FCNR(B). Bank raised FY27 credit growth guidance to 13-15% and deposit growth to 11-13%, maintained NIM target 2.7-2.95% and expects ROA above 1%. Shares gained more than 5% to intra-day high Rs 250.89 from Rs 243 open, trading at Rs 246-244.75 up 3%. Brokerages positive – Motilal Oswal says steady quarter, created additional prudential provisions Rs 16 billion, floating provision Rs 25 billion.
NTPC Group – Power Surge
NTPC reported 14% YoY increase in standalone net profit at Rs 5,320 crore vs Rs 4,653 crore, consolidated net profit rising 39% to Rs 7,030 crore, revenue up 21% to Rs 54,270 crore, EBITDA up 22% to Rs 15,627 crore, supported by higher power generation and improved PLF. NTPC Green Energy, renewable arm, reported 56.2-59% YoY rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 137.5 crore vs Rs 87.6-88 crore, total income jumped 52% to Rs 1,000.76 crore vs Rs 656.72 crore, revenue surged 53.2% to Rs 938 crore vs Rs 612.3 crore, EBITDA up 56.6-57% to Rs 830 crore vs Rs 530 crore, margin improved to 88.4% from 86.5% though missed analyst estimates, shares up 1.5% to Rs 83.7.
Other Q2
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries declared Q2, consolidated net profit down 36.36% to Rs 1,988.53 crore for July-September, hit by one-offs. Reliance Industries Monday – consolidated net profit 41% YoY at Rs 25,548 crore vs Rs 18,165 crore, gross revenue Rs 3.62 lakh crore up 27.8%, Jio Platforms profit up 13.7% to Rs 8,389-8,387 crore, revenue up 11.3% to Rs 47,485 crore.
Geopolitics – Crude Roller-Coaster Ahead Of US Midterms
Monday Crash, Tuesday Rebound
Brent crude fell almost 8% Monday – plunged 7.63% or $8.66 to settle at $104.77, WTI down 7.4% to $96.46-96.64, biggest decline in three months. Reason – optimism over US-Iran talks after Iranian and Qatari officials held third straight day of talks aimed at pushing for deal to end US-Israeli war on Iran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei granted government certain authorities for peace talks.
US Strikes Qeshm Island
US forces struck Iran’s Qeshm Island at mouth of Strait of Hormuz Monday night, Wall Street Journal reported citing US officials, described as defensive measures aimed at preventing Iran from targeting commercial vessels in Strait. Qeshm Island is largest island in Persian Gulf, near key shipping lane. Oil prices climbed more than 2% Tuesday after strike – Brent rose to nearly $107, up 2.03% or $1.84-48 cents to $105.25-106.61 by 0744 GMT, WTI up 1.75% or $1.6 to $98.06-98.15, up 20 cents or 0.21% to $96.66. Earlier optimism dashed as senior Iranian official told Reuters both countries far from reaching deal, Tehran would not accept Washington’s excessive demands, parliament speaker Qalibaf said Tehran gave Washington strong and rational response, ball in US court.
Midterm Shadow
US goes to polls Tuesday for midterm elections, war started late February leading cause of high gasoline prices weighing on voters, Trump under pressure to end conflict. Trump mouthed no when asked if attacks on Iran would resume after midterms, but also hinted at progress in talks and said deal could happen. Trump repeatedly said would resolve conflict one way or other, while threatening to resume strikes after elections.
Other Global Cues
US will bring together delegations from Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11 to discuss ending war, post-war security pacts and de-escalation. Dollar index traded weaker at 101.72 after Monday’s drop to one-month low, US 10-year Treasury yield up 2.1 bps at 4.913%. RBA raised official cash rate by 25 bps to 4.85% Tuesday, highest since December 2008.
For Dalal Street, crude easing from $118 to $104.77 was biggest trigger. Brent ended October at highest in six months, up almost 14% in October, concerns conflict could escalate again after midterms. If talks succeed, Brent could fall to $100, if not, could jump to $120-140 per Goldman Sachs forecast.
