How much India should trade with any country must be guided by its national interest. No diktat from any country should govern it as it would amount to sacrificing its right to govern itself.
Between 2020-21 and 2024-25, India’s import from Russia diarrd from $ 5.5 billion to $ 63.8 billion.Much of it on account of mineral fuels.
Out of 244.5 million metric tonnes of crude petroleum that India imported last fiscal, Russia’s share was 87.5 mt, making it the country’s top supplier.It is this trade that US President Donald Trump is targetting by threatening to levy a penalty on the 25 per cent general tariff he has already announced on Indian imports.
By not mentioning how much the additional penalty would be, he is nudging India to cut down if not stop energy and defence purchase from Russia. This comes just over two weeks after NATO general secretary, general Mark Rutte earning India, China and Brazil of secondary sanctions if they continued to do business with Russia and help sustain its current war effort with Ukraine.
The quantum of penalty is unknown. But a new Bill introduced in the US Congress seeking to impose 500 per cent on all goods and services from countries “that knowingly engage in the exchange of Rudsian-origin Uranium and petroleum products “.
One thing is certain. The Western sanction noose is tightening.
For India, buying Russian oil cannot be business as before. The NDA government has so far rightly over massively stepping up sourcing of Russian crude that is available at discount relative to global benchmark prices.
This is the moment of truth. It has cited both the need to prioritise the energy security of the Indian people as well as the fact that the ban on import of Russian oil by the US or the European Union is not covered under any United Nations sanction.
.The purchase of Russian oil is well within India’s legitimate rights. That argument still holds.
Indian has to expand its trade with Russia even at the cost of western displeasure. But there are geopolitical costs.
Such costs would significantly go up as US and EU strike at Russia’s war machine by targetting it’s energy revenue sources.
That 36 per cent of India’s crude comes from a single country is not good at the safest times. Oil sources have to be diversified.
