Indian markets shrugged off early nerves from a fresh flare-up in the Middle East to close with modest gains on Thursday, as domestic earnings and steady foreign inflows helped offset global headwinds.
The Nifty 50 added 66.95 points to finish at 24,317.15, up 0.28%. The Sensex gained 273.55 points to end at 77,928.15, a rise of 0.35%. Both indices opened flat and traded in a tight band through the day before edging higher in the final hour.
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HOW THE DAY PLAYED OUT
– Nifty: Open 24,249.55 | High 24,342.95 | Low 24,187.10 | Prev Close 24,250.20
– Sensex: Open 77,638.86 | High 78,007.09 | Low 77,440.91 | Prev Close 77,654.60
– Volatility: India VIX eased to 12.01. Put writers defended 24,200 aggressively, with PCR at 1.17, pointing to improving confidence despite global uncertainty
Eleven of 16 sectoral indices closed in the green. Broader markets lagged, with the Nifty Midcap 100 down 0.4% and Smallcap 100 down 0.6%.
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WINNERS AND LAGGARDS: AUTO LEADS, IT EXTENDS HOT STREAK
Autos were the day’s star. The Nifty Auto index jumped 1.6% after strong June quarter numbers. Mahindra & Mahindra rose about 2% and Balkrishna Industries surged 10.8%.
IT continued its July dream run. The Nifty IT index gained 0.2% and is up roughly 8.4% for the week. With an 18.6% gain so far in July, it is headed for its best month in six years. Strategists say India is benefiting from being a relative safe haven as global AI and semiconductor stocks face selling pressure.
Pharma also saw action. Sun Pharma hit a record high after Brazil’s regulator approved its semaglutide injection. On the downside, Dabur fell 1.8% as brokerages flagged weak demand trends.
Cognizant cut its full-year revenue forecast despite 4.1% Q2 growth, citing client caution. Adani Enterprises slipped into a Q1 loss after setting aside Rs 2,644 crore for an OFAC settlement in the US.
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GLOBAL CUES TURN CAUTIOUS
Markets began the day on a hesitant note. GIFT Nifty indicated a muted opening as investors tracked escalating tensions between the US and Iran. The US launched fresh airstrikes inside Iran, the first direct attacks since President Donald Trump paused a 13-night campaign on July 24.
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the meeting exposed divisions. Three of 12 members dissented in favor of a hike. “The presence of multiple dissents underscores that the Fed is not yet ready to declare victory over inflation,” said Axis Direct’s Rajesh Palviya.
Wall Street ended lower ahead of big tech earnings, while Asian markets had a mildly positive bias.
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OIL, FISCAL MATH AND THE RUSSIA ANGLE
Crude remains the biggest domestic worry. Brent hovered below $90 per barrel in early trade. The Finance Ministry, in its July review, warned that a sustained spike in oil prices could again pressure the fiscal deficit and current account balance.
Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf are already changing trade flows. Discounts on Russian Urals crude to India have narrowed sharply to $1-$2 a barrel versus dated Brent, from over $10 in early July. Indian refiners are buying more Russian oil amid concerns over supply security in the Strait of Hormuz following US action against Iran.
The government has also raised the Nutrient-Based Subsidy for Kharif 2026 to Rs 41,534 crore, up 11-12%, as fertiliser inputs face higher shipping costs.
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POLICY AND TRADE: DELHI STAYS THE COURSE
Commerce Minister PiyushGoyal said goods exports in April-July 2026 are tracking about 15% year-on-year growth. On the proposed India-US trade deal, he reiterated that the first tranche finalized in February will take effect only once the US ensures India gets a comparative advantage over ASEAN.
On the legislative front, the Lok Sabha passed the Public Examinations Amendment Bill, 2026, which proposes jail of up to 10 years and fines of up to Rs 10 crore for those involved in paper leaks.
The economic review also highlighted the government’s push in strategic sectors. Initiatives in semiconductors, critical minerals, shipbuilding and coal gasification are expected to strengthen manufacturing and improve supply-chain resilience.
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THE BIGGER PICTURE: GROWTH, DEFENCE, WEATHER
Growth expectations have been tempered. A Reuters poll now sees GDP at 6.6% for FY27, down from 7.7% in FY26, as weak private capex and higher oil prices weigh. Q1 FY26 growth came in at 7.8%, beating the 7.3% estimate.
Defence exports are emerging as a structural story. India recorded nearly Rs 39,000 crore in defence exports in FY26 and is targeting Rs 50,000 crore by 2030. About 145 companies are now exporting, from bulletproof jackets to BrahMos missiles. The Philippines has already signed for BrahMos, with Indonesia and Vietnam in advanced talks.
The other risk is weather. The ministry flagged a possible El Niño transition that could hurt farm output, push food inflation higher and dampen rural demand. For now, foodgrain stocks and reservoir levels provide a buffer.
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WHAT ANALYSTS ARE SAYING
The market’s ability to close positive despite Iran news shows underlying support from Q1 earnings and consistent FPI inflows. “Long-term trends continue to favor companies delivering strong sales growth and high ROE,” analysts noted, with quality names outperforming since mid-2024.
But caution persists. Citi has lowered its Nifty target to 26,000, citing geopolitical risks. With oil elevated, the Fed divided, and monsoon tracking in focus, most expect the market to remain in a consolidation phase.
For traders, the message is clear: stay selective. Defensives like pharma and healthcare are finding favor, while rate-sensitive and oil-import heavy sectors face pressure until crude cools.
