Dalal Street staged a powerful comeback Monday, with frontline indices snapping a choppy spell to close near session peaks. The NSE Nifty 50 jumped 330.25 points, or 1.39%, to settle at 24,049.55, while the BSE Sensex vaulted 1,134.47 points, or 1.50%, to 76,549.82 at 3:30 pm IST.
The rally was broad-based but back-ended. After a steady start, both indices caught a second wind post 2 pm, with Nifty scaling an intraday high of 24,054.45 and Sensex touching 76,559.07. Prevailing sentiment turned buoyant as heavyweights ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank drove gains, aided by a late uptick in ONGC, Bharat Electronics and Coal India.
Chart Check: Nifty Defends 23,900, Sensex Guns Past 76,500 Resistance
Today’s tape tells a tale of resilient bulls. Nifty opened at 23,940.25, held a low of 23,922.85, and never looked back from its previous close of 23,719.30. The index remains 9.6% below its 52-week high of 26,373.20 but is comfortably above the year’s low of 22,182.55.
Sensex mirrored the strength. Opening at 76,135.82 against Friday’s close of 75,415.35, the index stayed above 76,097.02 all day. With today’s close, it is still 12.5% shy of the 52-week peak of 86,159.02 but well clear of the 71,545.81 trough.
Derivatives data flagged 23,800-24,000 as a key resistance cluster for Nifty, while 23,500-23,300 emerged as strong put-side defense. A decisive breakout above 23,850-23,900 could open the gates for 24,150, analysts said.
FII + DII Tag Team: Foreign Inflows Extend 5-Day Streak, DIIs Join Party
Liquidity was the silent driver. Foreign institutional investors pumped ₹589.10 crore into equities on 25 May, marking their fifth straight session of net buying. Domestic institutions added ₹338.44 crore.
Market watchers attributed the risk-on mood to “strong corporate earnings, favorable macro indicators, and positive global trends”. The India VIX cooled nearly 5% last week, closing below 18 and further supporting bullish sentiment.
Sector Scan: Realty, Oil & Gas Lead; FMCG, IT Take a Breather
The Nifty Oil and Gas index topped sectoral charts, up 3.40%, followed by Metal at 2.34% and Realty at 1.05%. Realty extended a three-day winning run, with Anant Raj, Phoenix Mills and Oberoi Realty in the green.
On the flip side, FMCG shed 0.71% and Pharma slipped 0.20%. IT majors dragged Friday but showed signs of stabilization today as volatility eased.
Geopolitical Pulse: West Asia Tensions Cloud Outlook, But Crude Cools
Global cues remained a double-edged sword. The US-Iran war has kept Brent elevated, with HDFC Bank warning that every 10% rise in oil could shave 20-25 bps off India’s GDP. Yet prices moderated slightly Monday after an initial war-driven spike.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on his maiden India visit, pitched American energy as a hedge for New Delhi. “We want to sell them as much energy as they’ll buy,” Rubio said, flagging LNG and Venezuelan crude as options. The State Department stressed US supplies could “diversify India’s energy basket” amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
JSW Group’s Sajjan Jindal called the Middle East conflict a “temporary setback”, saying it “can get over in a week’s time or two months at most” and that India’s capex cycle remains intact.
Trade Winds: India-Canada FTA Talks, US Deal Nears Finish Line
On the diplomacy front, India and Canada begin trade talks from 25-27 May, eyeing cooperation in critical minerals, uranium and EV supply chains. Separately, US officials said a US-India trade deal could be finalized “in the coming weeks and months”, expanding market access and reducing barriers.
Analysts, however, cautioned that Middle East conflict may deter investment and blunt gains from US/EU deals, with higher energy costs posing downside risks.
What’s Next: Crude, F&O Expiry, Fed Meet to Dictate Tape
For the week ahead, traders will watch three triggers:
1. Crude Oil: Sustained moves above $90/bbl could push FY27 inflation to 5-5.5% and widen CAD.
2. F&O Expiry: Volatility is expected to stay elevated with Nifty seen in a 23,500-24,000 range.
3. Global Cues: The FOMC meets later this month, while RBI is expected to hold rates amid imported inflation risks.
HSBC Flash PMI for May dipped to 58.1 from 58.2, with manufacturing at 54.3 as new export orders slowed to a 19-month low on Middle East disruptions.
Bottom Line: Bulls have the ball, but oil is the wildcard. If geopolitical heat simmers and crude stays below $90, Nifty’s path to 24,150 opens up. If not, expect a tug-of-war at 23,600. For now, Dalal Street ends May 25 with swagger, not stutter.
