Dalal Street found its footing on Thursday. After Tuesday’s worst fall in 2 months, the Sensex and Nifty bounced back, aided by a pullback in crude and steady hands from the RBI. But with West Asia still on edge, traders treated the rally with caution.
THE NUMBERS: NIFTY BACK ABOVE 23,960, SENSEX AT 76,742
– Nifty 50: 23,962.80 ↑80.75 pts (+0.34%). Day range: 23,925.70 – 24,134.70
– BSE Sensex: 76,741.82 ↑238.22 pts (+0.31%). Day range: 76,576.14 – 77,326.65
Both indices had closed lower on Tuesday as Trump’s hardline comments on Iran and a spike in oil prices sparked a risk-off move. The Nifty had cracked 2.03% to 23,882, while Sensex slumped 2.1% to 76,503.
Today’s rebound came after a volatile session. Nifty hit 24,134 in morning trade before profit-taking dragged it near 23,900. A late recovery helped it settle above the 23,950 mark.
3 THINGS THAT HELPED THE RECOVERY
1. Crude Takes Foot Off The Gas
Brent slipped to ∼$77.5/bbl from Tuesday’s $79 high. For India, the world’s 3rd largest oil importer, that’s instant relief on the inflation and CAD front. Markets are still watching if Tehran retaliates after US strikes on IRGC-linked sites. As one oil strategist put it, “the next 48-72 hours are critical.”
2. RBI Keeps Rupee In Check
The rupee strengthened to 95.38/$ after dealers spotted suspected RBI dollar sales. The central bank’s push to boost inflows has also cooled rate-hike expectations. 5-year OIS volumes hit a record 253 billion rupees this week.
3. FIIs Pause, Don’t Flee
Foreigners sold after 3 days of buying on Tuesday. But July inflows still stand at $401 million. With AI stocks expensive in the US, India looks relatively better value to global funds right now.
STREET CHATTER: SECTORS & STOCKS
Tuesday was a washout. All 16 sectoral indices closed red. PSU Bank fell 2.5%, Auto 2.06%, IT 1.25%. Nifty Midcap and Smallcap were down over 1.5% and 2.2% respectively.
Wednesday saw selective buying. Energy, auto and select banks led the bounce. Losers from Tuesday like ONGC, Hindalco and Bajaj Auto found support.
On the corporate front:
– JSW Infra greenlit a ₹2,100 cr, 52 mtpa jetty in Odisha
– HFCL to pump ₹950 cr to expand optical fibre capacity, eyes 10% global share
– PhonePe reshuffled top tech deck, Srijon Biswas named CTO
– Millworks Technologies IPO seeing 90% GMP ahead of July 14 listing
GEOPOLITICAL HEADWIND: IRAN-US STANDOFF STILL LIVE
The overhang hasn’t gone away. Trump declaring the Iran peace memo “over” and tit-for-tat strikes in the Gulf rattled markets this week. Brent hit a 2-week high and the India VIX spiked 30% on Tuesday.
The fallout is real. EASA warnings on Iran/Iraq/Lebanon airspace could mean costlier tickets for Indian flyers. The IMF has already trimmed India’s FY27 growth view to 6.4%, citing the conflict and elevated energy prices.
“Despite the sharp fall, this looks like an immediate reaction,” said Samrat Dasgupta of Esquire Capital. “Consolidation likely as we track the Iran conflict and earnings.”
TECHNICALS: 23,800 HOLDS, BUT BIAS CAUTIOUS
Charts show Tuesday’s drop created a bearish candle with a lower high-low. Key support is now 23,800. If that breaks, 23,500-23,600 comes into play. Resistance sits at 24,040-24,180.
Baj Broking: “A close above 24,000 is needed to signal the next leg up. Till then, sell-on-rises may continue.”
ROAD AHEAD: TCS, FED, AND OIL RULE THE NARRATIVE
– Earnings kickoff: TCS Q1 results due today. S one treet will watch commentary on US demand and AI deals
– Fed meeting later in July: Any dovish tilt could help EM flows
– Oil: Any disruption in Strait of Hormuz will put India’s macro right back under pressure
For now, the message is clear — buy the dip, but keep stops tight. With geopolitical risk and earnings volatility ahead, this is a stock-picker’s market, not a momentum
