Indian equities weathered a choppy afternoon to end in the green on Thursday, as easing crude oil prices and a ceasefire breakthrough in the Middle East revived risk appetite. The BSE Sensex added 109.25 points, or 0.14%, to settle at 77,100.47, while the NSE Nifty 50 edged up 34.35 points, or 0.14%, to close at 24,056.00.
Both benchmarks staged an early rally, with Sensex hitting an intraday high of 77,803.18 and Nifty touching 24,261.60, before surrendering gains in the last hour of trade. The Nifty 50 opened at 24,125.85 and slipped to a low of 24,039.00, mirroring the Sensex which swung between 77,391.07 and 76,993.16. Despite the late profit booking, the indices recovered most of Tuesday’s losses and marked their seventh advance in nine sessions.
Brent Retreats to Pre-War Levels, Bulls Take Charge
Crude Cool-Off: Oil Slips Below $73/bbl as Strait of Hormuz Reopens
The key trigger for today’s optimism was Brent crude sliding 1.8% to $72.4 a barrel, levels last seen before the US-Iran flare-up. “Indian equities are expected to regain positive momentum, supported by renewed buying interest and lower energy prices,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, MotilalOswal Financial Services.
With vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz normalizing after a US-Iran peace deal, concerns over supply shocks eased. The development is critical for India, the world’s No. 3 oil importer, as softer crude cools inflation fears and improves the growth outlook.
Global sentiment followed suit. Asian stocks surged, with South Korea’s Kospi up 5.24% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 2.38%. GIFT Nifty futures signaled strength too, trading at 24,107 early Wednesday, indicating a gap-up opening above Tuesday’s close.
Sector Watch: Autos & Realty Steer, IT Loses Sheen
Winners and Losers: Bajaj Auto Vrooms, Tech Mahindra Skids
Auto and realty counters led Wednesday’s rally, while IT remained a drag. Bajaj Auto gained 1.71%, closing at ₹9,917 after touching ₹9,930 intraday. In contrast, Tech Mahindra slipped 0.84% to ₹1,449.3.
The Street is recalibrating sector bets: IT’s weighting in Nifty has dropped to a record low amid a prolonged selloff. Meanwhile, IndiGo, BPCL and HPCL jumped over 3% as Brent cooled.
Stock-Specific Action
– LIC fell nearly 3% after CFO Sunil Agrawal resigned, effective July 14. The stock also turned ex-dividend for a ₹10 final payout.
– Jubilant Pharmova got relief as the IT department cut its tax demand to ₹42.41 crore from ₹108 crore.
– ICICI Bank received RBI nod to buy an additional 2% in its life insurance arm.
FIIs Press Sell Button, DIIs Play Saviour
Flow Tally: FPIs Offload Rs 1,843 cr; DIIs Pump Rs 3,637 cr
Foreign portfolio investors offloaded shares worth ₹1,843 crore on Wednesday, while domestic institutional investors infused ₹3,637 crore. The tug-of-war continues, with DIIs cushioning indices against overseas outflows.
Rupee, however, found support from softening crude. It opened 37 paise higher at 94.30 against the dollar as Brent slipped to pre-war lows.
Geopolitics: Strait of Hormuz Opens, But Risks Linger
Peace Deal Push: US-Iran Talks Ease Supply Fears, Trump Warns Tehran
The biggest geopolitical overhang eased after stranded tankers exited the Strait of Hormuz following an initial US-Iran peace deal. US President Donald Trump warned he would reject any Iran deal involving shipping tolls on Hormuz.
Yet, risks remain. El Niño threatens to disrupt India’s $300-billion agricultural supply chain, while ongoing US-Iran tensions could spike fertiliser costs. Morgan Stanley flagged prolonged West Asia tensions and oil above $120/bbl as key threats that could force RBI to tighten policy.
Policy Pulse & Global Check
PM Modi Flags New Aviation Model; Goyal Heads to UK for Trade Talks
On the domestic front, PM Modi pitched a new aviation model to cut travel time and expand global access. Trade Minister PiyushGoyal will visit the UK from June 25-27 to iron out implementation issues ahead of the India-UK trade deal’s July 15 rollout.
In the US, JPMorgan announced a $50-billion buyback and 10% dividend hike after the Fed’s stress test showed banks are well-capitalized. Wall Street rose Wednesday as chip stocks rebounded and oil fell.
Road Ahead: Monsoon, Macros in Focus
Outlook: Bulls Eye 24,150, But Inflation & Fed Stay on Radar
Technically, Nifty faces resistance at 24,150 after Wednesday’s recovery. Analysts say falling crude and a peace deal aid sentiment, but markets will track the RBI’s tone, monsoon progress, and Fed cues.
With El Niño risks and subsidy bills rising, the next leg hinges on oil stability and earnings. For now, Dalal Street is breathing easier as crude cools and geopolitics thaw.
