These range from ministerial visits to revival of direct flights and pilgrimages. To call a spade by no other name, necessity rather than mutual goodwill seems to be at work.
One can see the surface calm on s first glance. Beneath it lies a complex web of unresolved territorial dispute together with strategic recalibration influenced by global dynamics.
An undemarcated border stretching 3,440 kilometres lies at the core of the dispute. It is here that flashpoints are produced by s combination of geography and ambiguity.
The tenor of decades of peace and tranquility ties were shattered in 2020 post Galwan Valley clash. The shadow of conflict have not departed though both India and China have engaged in diplomatic and military dialogue to defuse tensions in Ladakh.
It is shaped by necessity. Mutual goodwill is absent.
.The external environment is. compelling both sides to seek a degree of stability. Increasingly focused on Taiwan and it’s own slowng economy, China cannot afford to have a second front in Himalayas.
For India, the unpredictability of US approach during the ongoing term of President Donald Trump is a wake-up call. India has little option but to diversify it’s strategic choices.
The faith on a steadfast partnership with US has faded. It is undescored by President Trump’s controversial overture to Pakistan during recent border tensions
Economic interdependence also weighs heavily in the bilateral ties between the two ancient neighbours. China is India’s second largest trade partner supplying critical components like rare earth magnets and fertilisers.
China has tightened control on the export of these comodities. The vulnerabilities in India’s industrial and agricultural sector are becoming evident.
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India may seek to decouple in the long term. But in the immediate future, border peace is an essential pre-requisite for economic resilence.
As of now, conditions and caution mark the bilateral ties. There are restrictions in India on Chinese investments and technological platforms.
These are unlikely to be lifted unless India sees reciprocal gestures. on security and territorial integrity. Domestic policy too demand a firm stand.
Any perceived compromise on national sovereignty can cost the Indian leadership dear. It would be loath to take any step which it can politically ill afford.
There is little point overlooking the fact that the detente is at best transactional. A long term road map is lacking.
It is vulnerable to sudden shocks It can be a skirmish along the Line of Control(LAC) or a geopolitical flashpoint involving third-party alliances.
At the moment, both the countries are navigating a narrow corridor of cooperation. It is vulnerable to relapse.
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India and China are now learning to step carefully around each other. They are certainly not embracing but they are only too aware that the cost of another collision could be much higher than the price of an uneasy pace.
