Dalal Street witnessed a classic tug-of-war on Monday, May 18 as benchmark indices staged a sharp recovery from early losses to end a choppy session virtually unchanged. The NSE Nifty 50 closed at 23,649.95, up 6.45 points or 0.027% after swinging from a low of 23,317.10 to a high of 23,695.65. The BSE Sensex fared marginally better, settling at 75,315.04, up 77.05 points or 0.10%, having rebounded nearly 1,135 points from its intraday low of 74,180.26.
The recovery came despite a brutal start. Both indices tanked over 1% at the open, with the Sensex crashing 833 points and Nifty sliding 234 points amid surging crude and a fresh flare-up in West Asia. By close, however, IT and pharma heavyweights pulled the benchmarks out of the red, even as broader markets bled and the rupee sank to a new record low.
Crude Shock: Oil at $111 as Strait of Hormuz Stays on Edge
Brent spikes 1.85% after UAE drone attack; fuel price hike adds to inflation worry
The primary villain behind Monday’s volatility was oil. Brent crude traded 1.79-1.85% higher at $111.2–111.28 per barrel after a drone attack targeted the Barakah nuclear facility in the UAE on Sunday. WTI jumped over 2% to $103.22.
The oil shock hit home fast. Oil marketing companies raised petrol and diesel prices by ₹3 across all variants on May 15, pushing Delhi petrol to ₹97.77 and diesel to ₹90.67 per litre. With crude above $109, the rupee cratered to a fresh lifetime low near 96 per dollar, having lost 5.5% since the Iran-US conflict began on February 28. VK Vijayakumar of Geojit flagged the “absence of initiatives to open the Strait of Hormuz” as a key overhang.
FPIs Flee, But IT and Pharma Play Defence
May outflows top ₹27,000 cr; Bharti Airtel overtakes HDFC Bank in m-cap race
Foreign Portfolio Investors continued their exodus, pulling out ₹27,048 crore in May and taking 2026 outflows to ₹2.2 lakh crore, already higher than all of 2025. Yet select pockets found buyers.
IT majors led the rebound: Infosys rose 1.34%, Tech Mahindra 4.22%, TCS 1.91%, and HCL Tech 1.28%. Pharma also stayed resilient, with the Nifty Pharma index up 2.18% last week as investors sought defensive bets. Bharti Airtel made headlines by surpassing HDFC Bank to become India’s 2nd most valuable company, while losers included Power Grid -3.55%, Tata Steel -3.24% and Maruti -2.13%.
Earnings Parade: Tata Steel Doubles, SAIL Surges, Godfrey Phillips Shines
Q4 results drive stock-specific action; Vodafone Idea plans ₹4,730 cr raise
The earnings season kept counters busy. Tata Steel’s profit more than doubled, SAIL’s jumped nearly 47%, and Godfrey Phillips posted a sharp rise. ITC Hotels reported a strong quarter, while Balrampur Chini saw profit decline despite revenue growth.
On the corporate action front, Vodafone Idea plans to raise ₹4,730 crore, Adani Ports acquired a maritime stake, and IRFC set a ₹1 lakh crore sanctions target. TVS Motor will acquire a 4.9% stake in Jana Small Finance Bank, and Coal India’s MCL listing received approval.
Geopolitical Chessboard: Modi’s Europe Blitz, Rajnath’s Vietnam Pitch
India elevates Netherlands ties, seeks Nordic capital as Strait of Hormuz simmers
Amid market turbulence, New Delhi doubled down on diplomacy. PM Narendra Modi’s Europe tour saw India and the Netherlands elevate ties to a Strategic Partnership with 17 agreements on semiconductors, critical minerals and renewables. In Sweden, Modi was conferred the Royal Order of the Polar Star.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh began a 4-day visit to Vietnam and South Korea to deepen Indo-Pacific defence ties, with BrahMos and shipbuilding tech on the agenda. Norway’s envoy backed India’s permanent UNSC seat ahead of Modi’s Oslo visit for the 3rd India-Nordic Summit.
The Road Ahead: Crude, Rupee, Monsoon in Focus
El Niño clouds, RBI dividend worries keep investors cautious; 24,000 key hurdle
For traders, the near-term script hinges on oil and the rupee. Crude above $110 and a dollar at 96 threaten to widen the CAD and stoke inflation. El Niño odds at 61% could mean a below-normal monsoon at 94% of LPA, hitting rural demand.
Technically, Nifty faces resistance at 23,900–24,000 with support at 23,400–23,500. As Motilal Oswal’s Siddhartha Khemka put it: equities will trade in a “broader range” with crude and FII flows dictating mood.
Bottom Line for Dalal Street
Sunday’s session proved Indian markets can absorb a geopolitical gut punch and still stand up. But with oil, the rupee and West Asia dominating the narrative, the path of least resistance remains choppy. For now, defensives and stock-specific stories are the only shelter in the storm.
