After Wednesday’s brutal washout that erased nearly Rs 3.93 lakh crore in market value, Indian equities staged a smart late-hour recovery on Thursday.
BSE Sensex closed at 73,895.74, up 315.20 points or 0.43%, after opening lower at 73,525.92. It touched an intraday low of 73,477.77 and a high of 73,968.05, with almost 400 points added in the final 90 minutes of trade. Previous close was 73,580.54.
Nifty 50 settled at 23,140.50, up 77.40 points or 0.34%. The index opened at 23,035.00 against previous close of 23,063.10, slipped to 23,020.95 in early trade, and rallied to 23,162.70 in the last hour. The day’s pattern was choppy till 1 pm, consolidation till 2 pm, and a near-vertical spike thereafter.
The bounce was crucial. Nifty and Sensex had hit three-month lows on 24th September, down 1.64% and 1.67% respectively, and were heading for a seventh straight weekly loss, down 1.2% and 1% for the week. Holding above 73,500 and 23,000 provided psychological relief. Both benchmarks remain well below their 52-week highs of 86,159.02 and 26,373.20, but above 52-week lows of 71,545.81 and 22,182.55.
Why Did Markets Bounce Today?
Wednesday’s crash was driven by four headwinds converging at once. Today, three of them eased marginally.
- Bond Yield Shock That Crashed Market On 24th: US 10-year Treasury spiked 15 bps to 5.11%, a 19-year high, after Fed Governor Michael Barr signaled more hikes. US 30-year hit a 20-year high. That lifted dollar index to 101.09 and triggered FII selling of Rs 5,027.36 crore on Wednesday. The biggest one-day yield jump since April 2025 made risk-free US debt more attractive than emerging market equities.
- Crude Cools From $106 High: Brent surged 4% on 23rd to touch $106.14 intraday on 24th after US Senate narrowly rejected a proposal to halt US-Iran war. On 25th, Brent eased 0.74% to $105.81 and WTI fell 1.54% to $93.19 after reports that US and Iranian negotiators in New York are discussing a phased deal – Tehran reopens Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting blockade.
- IRDAI Blow To Financials: Insurance regulator’s draft to cap commissions and Expense of Management norms triggered panic. PB Fintech crashed up to 30% on 24th, wiping Rs 26,200 crore, while HDFC Life, SBI Life, ICICI Prudential Life, LIC, ICICI Lombard fell sharply. Banks followed – Axis Bank down 5.22%, AU Small Finance, IDFC First, IndusInd down 4% plus. Bank Nifty fell 1.96% on Wednesday.
Thursday’s Savers: RBI was seen selling dollars before market open, pulling rupee back to 95.88 from early low of 95.97, just below key 96 mark. Bargain hunting in beaten-down financials helped – L&T up 0.95% led Sensex gainers today, with M&M, SBI, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance in green. IT remained weak – Infosys down 1.44%, TCS, Tech Mahindra under pressure on H-1B visa fee hike to $100,000.
Corporate & Business Beat: NSE’s Historic Debut Defies Mayhem
The biggest business story of the week came amid the crash.
- NSE Lists On BSE: National Stock Exchange of India, world’s largest derivatives exchange, debuted on rival BSE on 24th September in India’s second largest IPO ever at Rs 22,569 crore, after Hyundai Motor’s Rs 27,870 crore IPO in 2024. The Offer For Sale of 12.64 crore shares at Rs 1,700-1,785 band was subscribed 5.71 times – QIBs 12.68x, NIIs 6.55x, retail 1.39x – with anchor book of Rs 6,746 crore from LIC, Goldman Sachs and Fidelity. It listed at Rs 1,800, a 0.84% premium, and surged over 3% to Rs 1,841.75, commanding Rs 4.42 lakh crore market-cap.
- Deals & Capex Pipeline: Gautam Adani pledged Rs 1 trillion investment in West Bengal by 2035 after laying foundation for a 2,000-bed hospital in New Town, Kolkata. Bharat Dynamics signed Rs 810.79 crore contract with Ministry of Defence for SAT-SAAW weapons for IAF. Vikran Engineering bagged Rs 153.76 crore substation order from Power Grid. Maxvolt Energy broke ground on Rs 700 crore, 10 GWh lithium battery campus in Aligarh. Quality Power approved acquisition of Winwin Speciality for Rs 272 crore plus Rs 700 crore QIP. Persistent Systems crossed 50% tender for its EUR 1.27 billion acquisition of Nagarro SE.
- Policy Calendar: GST Council to meet on Oct 7 to focus on process reforms. US-India trade talk uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment.
Geopolitics & Energy: The $106 Crude Overhang
If equities bounced, energy remains the overhang.
Crude Reality Check: Indian crude basket averaged $102.11 in September till date versus $90.19 in August, highest since June and up over 13% month-on-month. On Tuesday it stood at $108.91. Every $10 rise adds $13-14 billion to import bill, per ICRA. September average has crossed the psychological $100 mark on Wednesday as US-Iran conflict escalated war-risk premiums.
Why Prices Are Stuck High: Strait of Hormuz traffic down from 18 million bpd to about 11 million bpd due to threats of mining, plus Bab-el-Mandeb disruption. US Central Command said it struck Iranian rocket launchers preparing to mine Hormuz, Iran retaliated with missiles and drones at US bases in Jordan, UAE intercepted drones, Houthis bombed Saudi East-West pipeline. US Senate rejecting halt to war kept premium high.
Impact On India:
- OMCs Under Water: State oil marketing companies face under-recoveries of Rs 8 per litre on petrol and Rs 9 per litre on diesel. At September average, marketing margin is negative Rs 5 on petrol and negative Rs 23 on diesel, LPG loss Rs 200 per cylinder, says ICRA. Yet retail prices on 25th September unchanged – Delhi petrol Rs 94.77, diesel Rs 87.67, Mumbai petrol Rs 103.50, diesel Rs 90.03.
- Diesel Rationing: Private refiners Reliance, Jio-BP and Nayara Energy have reportedly capped diesel purchases at retail pumps as losses mount.
- Supply Rejig Under Sanctions Risk: India cut Russian crude intake to 2.1 million bpd in August, down 16.5%, estimated 1.9 million bpd in September per Kpler, amid the Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, 2026 signed on 18th September that allows up to 100% tariffs on top Russian oil buyers including India. Reliance bought 1 million barrels from Kuwait Petroleum Corp after halting Russian cargoes. UAE, Kuwait, Venezuela, Brazil filling gap, with ADNOC rerouting via Fujairah outside Hormuz.
Outlook: 23,020 Is The Floor To Watch
Technically, Nifty’s immediate support is 23,020, today’s low, with breakdown target 22,900. Resistance is 23,162, today’s high, then 23,220. For Sensex, support at 73,477, resistance at 73,968. Trading stance remains cautious – intraday bounce possible, but fresh longs not advisable.
With US 10-year above 5.11% and Brent above $100, rallies will be sold. Defensive pharma may outperform energy-intensive aviation, paints, logistics.
Bottomline: Thursday’s 0.43% rise is a relief rally after Wednesday’s 10-week worst crash, not a trend reversal. Dalal Street will stay hostage to two global dials – US bond yield and Brent crude – till Hormuz fully reopens.
